Another potential benefit to LED lighting is that they promise to last a lot longer than incandescent or even fluorescent lighting. It is often claimed that an LED will last 100,000 hours. In practical terms, how long is 100,000 hours?
- Left on 24 hours a day, 100,000 hours means about 11 1/2 years.
- Left on 12 hours a day, for example all night all year long, 100,000 hours means about 22 years.
- Left on 9 hours a day, for example all day in your office, 100,000 hours means about 30 1/2 years.
Those calculations are pretty impressive, which is why they are used. Especially when someone is trying to convince you to buy a $36 LED light bulb. If you compare a single $36 LED lamp against 100 to 133 $0.75 lighting bulbs the economics seem to make sense.
However, it is not a fair comparison. Similar to the posting about LED efficiency, you can’t take the life of the LED module itself and apply it an LED used in a lighting application. To be fair, the major lamp manufacturers who are entering the LED game have toned down the rhetoric, and usually claim somewhere between 30,000 and 50,000 hours. However, the big claims are still out there.
Like efficiency, everything you do to an LED will tend to shorten its life. Much come back to the heat that has such a negative effect on efficiency. That same heat shortens the lifespan. If a module and the fixture design are good at dissipating the heat the lifespan isn’t shortened as much as it would be with a poor design, but there is always going to be some effect.
The problem at predicting the effect is that the LED lighting fixtures being designed and sold are still so new there just hasn’t been enough time to adequately test the claims.
Technical note: you don’t necessarily need to know this bit.
Lifespan for lighting is odd. It measures the number of hours a lamp type in aggregate is going to average until the lamp is no longer useful. For incandescent lamps this is fairly simple. If an incandescent lamp has a 750 hour life, than if you take a large sample of lamps after 750 hours you would expect about half of them to still be on and half to have burned out.
Lifespan for fluorescent lamps is more complex, since they slowly decrease the light they put out over time. Therefore, it is possible to have a lamp still function that isn’t putting out enough light to be useful. So if you take a very large sample of lamps with a rated life of 10,000 hours, after 10,000 hours more than 50% might still be illuminated, but only about 50% will actually be useful.
Lifespan for LED modules is like fluorescent lamps. They slowly decrease over time. There is an industry testing protocol (LM-80), but not everyone is using it. For example, some people use the “B50″ claim, which is the point when 50% of the LED stop turning on. Others might be a bit more reasonable and use the “L50″ claim, which is the point when the lumen output is 50% of the original. Others use the “L70″ claim, which is the point at which the lumen output has dropped to only 70% of the original. LM-80, the testing protocol from the IES, uses L50 or L70 based on the application.
To return to the main point: The problem at predicting the effect is that the LED lighting fixtures being designed and sold are still so new there just hasn’t been enough time to adequately test the claims.
If you take a 100,000 LED module and stick it in a fixture, you have to test the life of the LED in the fixture. Say we think it will last 50,000 hours instead of 100,000 hours. That means to adequately test the claim (not just run the computer simulations) you have to build a bunch of fixtures and test them for over 5 years. These test are in progress, and there are plenty of tests that have been completed. However, in terms of the overall industry those amount to spot checks, and what we really need is the sheer massive quantity of testing completed that will allow us to make confident claims about the industry as a whole. We’ve been using incandescent lamps for over a century, and fluorescent lamps almost as long. (Earlier posting: fluorescent precursors were invented before incandescent lamps but not really commercially viable or available until the 1920s.)
In general, the longer the life claim of an LED the more skeptical your approach should be. Chances are, if a manufacturer says their LED fixture has a more limited life of around 20,000 hours it is because they have gone through the testing procedures and there is the paperwork demonstrating that rated life and they know they can’t get away with claiming anything longer. If they claim 100,000 hours, chances are they have taken the number straight from the original LED laboratory results and not actually tested their own application.
